Breakout Nations : In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles

Ruchir Sharma

Economics

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'The old rule of forecasting was to make as many forecasts as possible and publicise the ones you got right. The new rule is to forecast so far in the future, no one will know you got it wrong.' Ruchir Sharma does neither. In Breakout Nations he shows why the economic 'mania' of the twenty-first century, with its unshakeable faith in the power of emerging markets - especially China - to continue growing at the astoundingly rapid and uniform pace of the last decade, is wrong. The next economic success stories will not be where we think they are. In this provocative new book, Sharma analyses why the basic laws of economic gravity (such as the law of large numbers, which says that the richer you are the harder it is to grow your wealth at a rapid pace) are already pulling China, Russia, Brazil and other vast emerging markets back to earth. To understand which nations will thrive and which will falter in a world reshaped by slower growth, it is time to start looking at the emerging markets as individual cases. Sharma argues that we must abandon our current obsession with global macro trends and the fad for all-embracing theories. He offers instead a more discerning, nuanced view, identifying specific factors - economic, political, social - which will make for slow or fast growth.

Ruchir Sharma

Ruchir Sharma is an Indian investor and fund manager who has written widely on global economics and politics. As chief global strategist and head of the Emerging Markets Equity team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, he manages $20 billion[3] in assets under management. A longtime columnist for newspapers and magazines around the world, Sharma is the author of The 10 Rules of Successful Nations (W. W. Norton & Company, March 2020), The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in a Post-Crisis World (Norton/Allen Lane, June 2016) and Breakout Nations (Norton/Allen Lane, April 2012). Sharma has told interviewers he spent his early school years in Mumbai, Delhi, and Singapore. He did his undergraduate studies at the Shri Ram College of Commerce in New Delhi, and afterward joined a securities trading company, and in 1991 he launched a column called For Ex, first for The Observer, later for The Economic Times of India. His writings attracted the attention of Morgan Stanley, which hired him in its Mumbai office in 1996. In 2002 he moved to the New York office, which remains his base today.[4] In 2003 he became cohead of the emerging markets team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. In 2006 he became head of the team