Election Under A Caretaker Government

This book is the result of an empirical study aimed at analysing the results of the three parliamentary elections hold in Bangladesh under caretaker administrations since 1991, with special emphasis on the October 2001 election. It carries out an objective analysis of various aspects of the election including possible determinants of party performance and voter turnout and the impact of rebel candidates and other contextual variables on the outcome of the election. To-date, no study has been undertaken to offer an objective analysis of the election results. The study is the first of its kind to attempt such an analysis, identifying potential factors that could explain the observed results. Starting with simple comparative analysis of votes received and seats won by the major political parties, the study gradually advances to more sophisticated statistical univariate and multivariate analysis and endeavours to record what exactly happened on the 1st October of 2001. The analysis also indicates what signals the results provide, and what lessons are learnt from these results. In addition to carrying out conventional election analysis of margins, vote shares, seat-to-vote ratios, swings, hold-gain-loss etc., the book applies a number of unique techniques including scenario analysis, rebel factor analysis, analysis of unusual movements of votes, and multivariate analysis of party performance. 7"he book, divided in thirteen chapters, is a comprehensive indepth analysis of all significant dimensions the October 2001 election results could present.